CAN OBAMA BAIL OUT AMERICA FROM THE CRISIS?

CAN OBAMA BAIL OUT AMERICA FROM THE CRISIS?

Prof Dr Colonel K Prabhakar Rao (Retired)


It is well known that world economy is directly influenced by the Economic stability of USA. The recent financial crisis in USA has caused slump in various countries too and resulted in unemployment world wide. In US too, it is pronounced. But how such things could happen in America causing great crisis? Is it linked to the Iraq war? Many die hard anti Bush critics of course would like to connect it that way although it may not be entirely true. President Obama however was highly hopeful to bail out the country from the crisis.He is optimistic, Rather one should be that way. On assuming the office as the 44 th and first black African American President he said, “To day I say to you that the challenges we face are real. They are serious and too many. They will not be met easily or in a short span of time. But know this; America- They will be met. The nation must choose hope over fear. Unity of purpose over conflict and discord” He said,” Starting from today e must pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off and begin again the work of remaking America. Referring to the terrorists he warned, you can not outlast us, and we will defeat you (1).”

The new President's swearing- in has been widely welcomed in the third world countries. In India too the occasion was widely acclaimed as the victory of oppressed classes against the oppressors. Some even compared the African black Americans as equivalent to scheduled castes and tribes in India who claim that they have been discriminated in the society over centuries. This euphoria would soon disappear within few days and the President has to face challenges and has to deliver.Soon every Tom., Dick, Harry would start evaluating him. His policies and progress will be naturally scrutinized closely by the critics all over the world.This happens when the old gurad changes after a long pause and in critical conditions. Mr Obama fundamentally has to tackle (2):
a. Homeland security
b. Threat from Iran by virtue of it’s pursuing of nuclear expertise
with ntention of making Atomic bombs
c. Threat to the country from the international terrorists
d. Iraq war
e. War in Afghanistan against Al Qaida and Taliban
f. Inability of Pakistan in containing terrorism from its soil and turning into
a failed state.
g. Security of Israel and continued threat from Arab neighbors
h. Rising unemployment in his country and creation of avenues to unemployed
i. Economic crisis in America
j. Literal collapse of certain automobile giants in the industry

These are great challenges in front of him and it is not a cake walk for him and he knows it too. These are examined.

HOME LAND SECURITY-CIVIL LIBERTIES
It is a known fact that after 9/11 USA was shaken up thoroughly. Aleeping nation was woken up. Till then, it was perceived that USA was a impregnable fortress, but the security was breached. In fact, the earlier US policies with respect to various organizations that were sheltered in American main land dug ground and some of them used the opportunities of freedom of speech and actions to work against the country and successfully executed the 9/11 that was the greatest attack on America after Pearl harbor during World War II. President George Bush no doubt rallied the country behind him and dislodged Taliban from Afghanistan that sheltered Al Qaiada who were the master planners for the 9/11.George Bush can not be held accountable to 9/11 as it was the outcome of various US policies on international scene by his predessors. It has been always considered that America was the soul behind Israel and is considered as the greatest enemy of the Muslim world .In spite of he using his Muslim origin in the name as Barack Hussein Obama. Islam considers all non Muslims as Kafirs ( Non believers). This situation is not going to change overnight with Obama taking over. The most important factor to note is that the actions taken by George Bush with regard to homeland security has prevented any further attack on America in the main land and there is no element of doubt about it.People may cry hoarse on this issue but naked truth can not be hidden. Credit must go to Presidnt George Bush. The new President can not afford to make any sudden changes in the measures taken by Bush or loosen the system as that would dilute internal security in USA and would encourage the terrorists to strike again. He has to choose between a safe American nation free of terrorist threat or loosened internal security in the face of realities and various freedoms guaranteed under constitution That owuld call trouble soon. In any democracy, all liberties are OK as long as they do not undermine national security. When threat exists, certain restrictions are essential to prevent unlawful activities. Few strikes on America like 9/11 is not going to destroy American power. However this would damage the prestige of the country greatly in international arena and it is the aim of the terrorists. It is very unlikely that Obama would make it free for all thereby undermining internal security. In any country internal trouble makers are the greatest threat than the outsiders (3). Outsiders can not achieve their nefarious aims without the connivance of internal moles.9/11 could not have been done without connivance of some moles within America.Obama surely knows this as a seasoned man.

IRAN THE PAIN IN THE NECK FOR AMERICA

Iran has been the greatest enemy of America after the fall of Shah PehelwiI and taking over by the fanatic Mullahs initially led by Ayotullah Khomeini. Its leaders have been spitting venom towards America and shouting death to America from time to time. On the occasion of ceremonial parades, they do shout death to America and exhibit open defiance and hatred to America.Even women commandos parade with assault rifles in hijab. It’s stubborn quest for nuclear technology has been the worrying factor and although there was a great speculation that Iran would be militarily forced to abandon the programme, America did not carry out the threat of attacking Iran. Probably the term of President Bush was coming to an end and it may be possible that this action has been left to Obama to accomplish. Setting aside the sentiments of poll speeches and promises, Obama has the noble duty of protecting his country from external threat.Any loosening of security Iran once acquires nuclear weapons would stand out as the great challenger to American interests in Middle East and Gulf. The threat of its president Ahmed inejad echoes in the ears when he said, he would wipe out Israel from the map of the world. It may be noted that Obama kept aloof from the Gaza operations in very recent times. This has been also criticized in the press. One fact is clear. Israel will never be abandoned by America. Israel would continue to receive arms and military hardware as bunker busters from US arsenal in future too.Certain quarters say that Isreal is the soul of America. Such powerful weapons were used in recent Gaza conflict too. No special concessions to Arabs can be foreseen under Obama jeopardizing Israeli interests. Obama has two options in front of him to contain Iran, the potential greatest threat to America in very near future. One is the diplomatic offensive by world community to force Iran to abandon the it's bomb making exercise. George Bush was trying this option all these years and Iran has been resisting and is continuing its programme.In facr the President bush has clubbed Iran, Iraq and North Korea as the evil axis. Obviously this method has not yielded results. Bush was also at a disadvantage of fighting in Iraq apart from Afghanistan. He could probably not open third front in Iran apart from the public resistance towards the long drawn wars and inability to unearth WMD from Iraq after fall of Iraq.His commanders too were averse to military conflict with Iran due to continued Iraq and Afghan wars. American and NATO forces could not also eliminate Laden from the scene ( Thanks to Pakistan). Thus Iran continued to be a great eye sore and a great threat to America in coming years. Alternatively the economic blockade and the naval blockade of Iran to prevent its imports of petroleum products that would cripple the country ppears a good possibility. Obama in his pre poll speeches also hinted clearly about nuclear proliferation and the need to prevent Iran going nuclear. In such scenario Obama would be compelled to use force against Iran to enhance security of USA from external enemies. This would be a great challenge to Obama in coming years.Same Obama would be blamed if Security of America is seriously threatned by loosened policies.

THREAT TO THE COUNTRY FROM INTERNATIONAL TERRORISTS

Al Qaida is the main threat to America that has taken over the mantle of Jihad on the behalf of Muslim world who consider America as the biggest crusader. Taliban that harbored Al-Qaida in Afghanistan is hand in glove with Al Qaida and are now safe in the lawless Waziristan of Pakistan. Al-Qaida considers America as the representative of all unbelievers in the world and as the closest ally of Israel and also as a greatest bottle neck for solving Palestine problem. Pakistan has no control over this region and the war against the terrorists is continuing. Al Qaeda has spread its tentacles in various countries around the world such as Sudan, Yemen, Kenya, Lebanon, Iraq, Chechnya, Somalia, Tunisia, Sahara, Algeria, Morocco, Philippines, Bangladesh, Pakistan (Headquarters). American embassies and naval ship, and other properties were attacked in past by the terrorists and Administration of George Bush was fighting all these thugs around the world with the help of native governments. It is always good to fight the terrorists away from your mainland than allowing them to get into your land and then try to fight.Will Americans prefer fighting Bin Laden and his men on the streets of New York and Brooklyn, in the vast ranches and plains of Texas and Deep deserts of Nevda. Surely not. In every country, there will be sympathizers and moles for the help of terrorists and America can not be an exception in this regard. This was exactly done by George Bush during his term. He faced the terrorists outside the country and did not allow them to make a strong base on American main land. If this policy is reversed, terrorists would surely infiltrate the main land and it would be extremely difficult to fight them. America has land border with Mexico and there are regular attempts by the Mexicans to cross over into America in search of livelihood and this is one of the greatest problem USA faces to day. In future, Terrorists could cross over into America along this route when neighbors are not friendly. There is no love lost between USA and Latin American countries. Thus Obama has to exercise great caution in keeping the terrorists away from main land via latin America and Mexico. He has to maintain friendly relations with the governments where Al-Qaida units are operating and fight and eliminate them in those countries. This would be a continuous task and can not isolate himself from this task. He would be forced to continue the policy of Georg Bush in this regard.
However Obama has suspended Gitmo trials for 120 days as per poll promise. 21 persons are facing charges for war crimes. Khalid Sheikh Mahmood the confessed organizer of 9/11 is facing trial along with others for war crimes.He promised that the controversial detention center in Guantanamo bay in Cuba would be closed. It has to be seen how these criminals would be punished.Crminals who undermine American security can not be spared and must pay for crimes. There can not be any universal pardon to win sympathy from masses and Arab world.

IRAQ WAR

One of the greatest criticisms against George Bush was Iraq war and inability in unearthing WMD. The long drawn Iraq war and the mounting American casualties have resulted in the poll debacles in both houses for Republicans in the past elections. Many tried to compare Iraq war as another Vietnam. But this is not true. America from the beginning has interests in the Middle East region and is maintaining military bases of strategic importance. It has strong ally in Saudi Arabia and Israel. Iraq that was once a friend turned a foe with Iraq-Kuwait war during the term of Senior Bush. Iraq was no doubt a balancing power in the region against Iran that was browbeating the region. The long drawn war between Iran and Iraq literally crippled Iran. The wisdom of attacking Iraq and eliminating it’s power base by Bush regime is debatable and no hard conclusions can be drawn. The great surge by Bush in Iraq has no doubt yielded results and it is time to withdraw. The growing casualties in Iraq war and the expenditure incurred resulting in public unhappiness has been no doubt cashed by Obama for winning the elections. Iraq has now its own government and as promised Obama has already instructed his military commanders to work out a strategy to pull out of Iraq at the earliest. He should be careful not to fritter away the gains Americans have after Iraq war to win laurels from the people. There is a truth that a hole vacated by a snake would soon be occupied by another snake. If America withdraws lock stock and barrel from Iraq, it will not be surprising to find terrorists making a strong base in Iraq with help of Iran that is the staunch enemy of America. Obama thus would be forced to maintain sizeable force in Iraq for several years to keep a watch over the region and protect American interests. It was already planned earlier that America shall maintain training teams in Iraq that also go on patrols along with Iraqi soldiers and in situations have to actively participate in skirmishes with unlawful elements. Of late, we do find that Iraq has reasonably stabilized and Obama would be able to withdraw sufficient forces out of Iraq. He however can not completely shut down the front. The pyre in Iraq would continue to burn for many years to come and American forces in some strength have to be maintained in Iraq.

AFGHAN WAR AND PAKISTAN TURNING INTO FAILED STATE

After 9/11, America has gone against Taliban in Afghanistan with full force and dislodged them and most of the terrorists leaders and cadres ran away to Waziristan of Pakistan, the next door neighbor. Although War against the terrorists holed in Pakistan is going- on, the results have not been encouraging. Pakistan the most important friend in the region due to strategic importance has been entrusted with the task of eliminating terrorists from its soil. Sadly, this has not been accomplished. Pakistan has failed to deliver goods and billions of dollars given as aid to this country to fight terrorists appear to be frittered away and Pakistan remains exposed to the world as a failed state, unable to control its own regions and emerge as a progressive nation. Pakistan itself is suffering terrorism internally and Pakistani Taliban is trying to take over the country at the earliest. The name sake democracy in the country is brow beaten by Pak army and Army Chief General Kayani calls the shots today. One will not be surprised in army stages a come back with Kayani in the saddle. This is most dangerous in view of Pakistan being a nuclear state and falling in the hands of Taliban or Al-Qaida would soon spell disaster to the world as the bombs would be like a stones in a lunatic’s hand. One of the most important agenda in front of Obama would be, how to make Pakistan act. He has already warned Pakistan that aid would be subject to its performance against terrorism emanating from its soil. Obama in his address warned Pakistan “There were no free lunches-US non military aid to it would go up, but all of it depends on its performance in the fight against terror.” Pakistan of course was rattled and reacted.” If Obama did not adopt a positive policy towards it, Islamabad would review all options”. This a thinly guarded warning to USA that it could even pull out of the fight against AlQaida and Taliban in its own country and in Afghanistan. Pak ambassador to US Hussein Haqani said, “We hope that Obama will be more patient while dealing with Pakistan. We will review all options, if Obama does not adopt positive policy towards us. Bush was more inclined to Pakistan (4).
American unmanned delivery systems are already attacking targets well with in Pakistani regions and destroying terrorists. Afghan war has already reached Pak soil. Obama has realized that Pakistan is the nerve centre of international terrorism much before he became the president and now he has a challenging task ahead of him to discipline Pakistan. He is already planning to escalate and strengthen the war efforts against Taliban and AlQaida and bring it to close soon. He already said he would catch or destroy Laden who has killed 3000 innocent Americans in 9/11 attack. Pakistan on its own surely will not be able to catch or kill the culprits and keeping alive the terrorism on its soil helps its actions against its strong neighbor that is India. Thus Obama would face the unhappy situation of forcing Pakistan to do some thing or launch NATO troops into Pak soil to destroy terrorists. The chances of Pakistan soon emerging as a failed state are very high and also it would be dangerous in view of presence of nuclear weapons. This would be a very serious challenge to Obama. Waziristan is a very difficult terrain where no one in past has won a war. If any success was achieved it was temporary and lawlessness soon remerged. Afghanistan war is the main agenda for Obama and if he can catch or destroy Laden and the leaders it would be a feather in the cap. It would be however very unfair to disallow any credit to George W Bush in fighting Taliban and Al-Qaida terrorism at a most crucial hour in American history and keeping them away from main land all these years.
The statements made by Pak leaders that they kept all options open if Obama was not sympathetic to him need careful consideration. What are these options? One is to not to co operate with US in the war against terror or even withdraw from the task. That means terrorists will have free hand in Pakistan particularly in Waziristan. That means Pakistan would soon become like Taliban ruled Afghanistan before US attack.Situation would be same as it was then except locations would change. US then will have no options except to repeat Afghanistan in Pakistan. That would be disastrous to the region and the country. In view of the nuclear weapons held by Pakistan, it could do some saber rattling, but Pakistan is in no position to oppose a full fledged US forces if it happens. Irts delivery systems can not reach US targets to threaten them. His second option is to embrace China. China although helped Pakistan in developing nuclear technology and in other areas has distanced itself during Bombay attack and it made it clear to Pakistan that it was better to control LET when discussions came up in UN. China under any case would not risk a war with USA and damage its economy. Thus Pakistan would be left high and dry if Pakistan decides to confront America. It would be forced to follow US guidelines and fall in line or has to face music. With Pressure building from India Pakistan would be sandwiched and results could be disastrous. Obama has to relentlessly press on Pakistan to deliver in order to achieve his aim.

SECURITY OF ISRAEL

America has been the staunch ally of Israel in Middle East and it makes no bones about it. In fact Israel’s survival in the Middle East has been a function of American support. Israel has also emerged as a strong military nuclear state over the years. It has successfully warded off the hostile neighbors all these years who were hell bent on destroying it. The recent Gaza conflict has caused concern in Arab nations when there was no response from Obama. Many children died in the air attacks on Gaza. Obama would have no great choices with respect to Israel and the policy of supporting it. Israel is under threat from Iran who declared that it would wipe it off the world map once it acquires a nuclear bomb. Israel naturally has all the right to defend itself. As Iran stubbornly inches towards its goal, Israel too is getting more concerned. There have been many speculations in the past that attack on Iran’s nuclear centers was on the cards and preparations were on the way. In the past Israel
Israel attacked and destroyed Iraq’s nuclear centers in preemptive strikes in the past. And it was comparatively easy affair Iraq being close to it. However Iran is far away and the task is not that easy without the help of America. With Hezbollah safely entrenched in Lebanon and duly supported by Iran, Israel would be at constant threat and it can lower its guard. It is unlikely that any solution can be found in very near future to the Palestine problem and Obama has to live through his tenure as his predecessors have lived. He can not break off from Isreal and thus hostiliy with a section of Arabs would remain, so the evil of terrorism would contune along with hostility towards USA.

ECONOMIC CRISIS IN THE COUNTRY

The most important challenge ahead of him is the current economic crisis. Scores of people have lost jobs. Automotive giants are facing greatest crisis threatening their survival. Every one in USA is expecting Obama to lead the country out of the present economic crisis. He has to create many jobs for the unemployed. It is a fact that unemployment leads to crimes too. He has to bail out the banks with a stimulus package of US $ 775 billion and auto giants from the crisis. Will he get money that he recommends? As per an Indian an Indian critic, most of the US citizens invest in house as security and also in shares. There are no great restrictions on loans towards buying Houses ad automobiles and sadly many do not pay back the loans. The banks seriously suffer by the defaulters and the real estate business has literally collapsed causing great down sliding in economy. America consumes maximum petroleum products and the guzzling cars racing at breakneck speed on the roads cause very heavy drain on the economy. If the small cars are used with lower speeds say 50 to 60 kmph there would be tremendous savings on the fuel sector and this would greatly revive the economy. But will Americans listen to this sane suggestion? The gas guzzling Hummers, Fords SUV, Dodge trucks running at beakneck speeds cause heavy drain on economy. This is one aspect. Iraq war has reportedly cost US $ 597 Billions. Thus Obama would be facing serious challenges in his first year and obviously reviving economy would be his first choice. The first year would indicate his success rate.

Entire America and world is expecting much from Obama ad obviously he can not do miracles. He also can not suddenly deviate from important international commitments involving security and the gains received at some sectors have to be stabilized. Witch hunting would be too bad. In some quarters some critics even suggested trial of previous leaders for waging wars and such insane demands better be ignored an laughed off. Frustration can drive people to crazy heights. Hope Obma would usher new era in a atmosphere of serious challenges, Giod bless him with long reign and health



Bibliography

1. Carl Hulse, Prez Obama ushers hope over fear. Deccan Chronicle, Hyderabad, AP, India, Janusray 21, 2008, PP 1

2. James Forsyth, Challenges, power grave for Obama, Deccan chronicle, Hyderabad, AP, India, January 21, 2008, PP11

3. Prof Dr Colonel (Retired) K Prabhakar Rao. . It is time for USA to battle its enemies more within main land, Faithcommons.org,October 13, 2006, 07:49

4. day one: Obama tells Pak to rein in terror, Times of India, Hyderabad, AP, India,
January 22, 2009, PP1


Dr K Prabhakar Rao